Economy caused in approximately 2,966 injuries, 1,781

Economy
of Pakistan has been affected
severely by devastating
and consective floods during the last
decade. In the past 10 years, Pakistan has faced consecutive five flood waves among
which the flood of 2010 is considered to be the biggest disaster in the history
of world. Which affected almost 20 million. The floods caused in approximately
2,966 injuries, 1,781 deaths, and demolished almost 1.89 million homes. Though nowhere close to the
2010
flood, the flood of 2011 also caused destruction,
and
affected 5.3 million people
and 1.2 million homes in Sindh, and
flooding 1.7 million acres
of arable land.

 

A drought is a period of abnormally dry weather due to lack of rainfall. The main characteristic of a drought is a water
shortage in a period and over an area. Economy of Pakistan has been stamped deeply by the continuous spell of droughts for many years, mainly
in Baluchistan and Sindh. The droughts in these areas have
abridged the river flows, consequently irrigation canals dried, created severe agricultural deficiency. It has also been liable for producing huge losses to poultry
and other animals, triggering a food and water deficiency for people. The increase in temperature and
mishandling of the
water reservoirs are
responsible for the condition.

 

As a consequence of global warming , the
annual mean surface temperatures in Pakistan have
been progressively
rising during the past century. In southern half of Pakistan, an increase
in mean temperature of 0.6-10c in the coastal
areas accompanied by
a 0.5 to 0.7% rise in solar radiation
has been recorded. In central
Pakistan
,
increase in temperature is caused by a 3-5% fall in cloud cover along with
increase in sunshine hours. The year 2010 was
reported to have highest temperature in a city of Sindh i.e. Mohenjo-Daro.The city had the highest  temperature of 53.50c. It is the hottest temperature ever recorded in
the history of Asia and the fourth highest temperature ever recorded in the world. In summer 2010 twelve cities of
Pakistan faced a temperature above 50c.

 

 

Graph 3. Average Monthly Temperature and Rainfall for Pakistan
from 1991-2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: The
World
Bank Group

 

 

The
erroneous activities of the humans have finally
started to take a toll on the earth’s environment, leading
to the formation of a volatile atmosphere, which is liable to be detrimental for the humanity itself in the form of unpredictable catalytic climatic events. The example of
such recent events includes the ravaging
droughts of 2006 in Australia and China and of 2011 in
Texas, the floods
of 2010 and 2011 in Pakistan and of 2012 in Spain, and the 2010 Northern Hemisphere summer which killed
over 2000 people.

 

Pakistan ,  which 
is  an  already resource
 stressed  country,  has 
been  crippled  by the process of
global warming , as the blatant floods and droughts continue to wreck the country’s economy. More
than 10 million people have been displaced over the last two years, the agricultural land lies barren and financial losses have been estimated at $2 billion. Therefore, there is a growing
consensus that steps will have to be taken to uproot the
cause
of these events. In addition to the
formation of well thought flood and drought prevention policies, steps to reduce
the overall
emission of
greenhouse gases have to be
taken so that the planet Earth and its inhabitants can
survive.

In
the assessment report 2013.4 (5th report) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) ,
it is concluded that “there are
high chances that human influence is the dominant reason of the observed global
warming”.  The  human
 influence
 includes the emission of GHG’s such as carbon
dioxide,
methane and nitrous oxide.
According to climate model
forecasts, global surface temperature will increase 0.3°C to 1.7°C (0.5°F to
3.1°F) for lowest emissions scenario
using stringent mitigation and 2.6°C to 4.8°C
(4.7°F to 8.6°F) for business
as usual carbon intense emissions,
during 21st century.5. These findings have
been unanimously recognized
by
the national science academies
of the major industrialized nations.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 1: The Long-Term Climate Risk Index (CRI): the 10 countries most affected from
1996
to 2015 (annual averages)

 

 

CRI
1996–2015 (1995–2014)

Country

CRI
score

Death toll

Deaths
per
100 000 inhabitants

Total
losses in million
US$
PPP

Losses per unit GDP in
%

Number of events (total
1996–2015)

 
1 (1)

 
Honduras

 
11.33

 
301.90

 
4.36

 
568.04

 
2.100

 
61

 
2 (2)

 
Myanmar

 
14.17

 
7 145.85

 
14.71

 
1 300.74

 
0.737

 
41

 
3 (3)

 
Haiti

 
18.17

 
253.25

 
2.71

 
221.92

 
1.486

 
63

 

 

 

 

 

4 Climate change evidence: How do we know?”. Climate Change:
Vital Signs of the Planet. Retrieved 2017-08-

07.

5   “IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis – Summary for Policymakers (AR5 WG1)” (PDF). p. 4. Warming of the climate system is
unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are

unprecedented over decades to millennia

6 “IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
– Summary for Policymakers (AR5 WG1)” (PDF).

p. 17. It
is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the
mid-20th century.

 

 
4 (4)

 
Nicaragua

 
19.17

 
162.90

 
2.94

 
234.79

 
1.197

 
44

 
5 (4)

 
Philippines

 
21.33

 
861.55

 
1.00

 
2 761.53

 
0.628

 
283

6 (6)

Bangladesh

25.00

679.05

0.48

2 283.38

0.732

185

7 (8)

Pakistan

30.50

504.75

0.32

3 823.17

0.647

133

8 (7)

Vietnam

31.33

339.75

0.41

2 119.37

0.621

206

 
9 (10)

 
Guatemala

 
33.83

 
97.25

 
0.75

 
401.54

 
0.467

 
75

 
10 (9)

 
Thailand

 
34.83

 
140.00

 
0.22

 
7 574.62

 
1.004

 
136

 

 

 

EFFECTS
OF
GLOBAL WARMING
ON THE WORLD’S CLIMATE

 

Global warming has been emerged as one of the biggest threats to our planet in this century. It has been proved that due
to the increase of the GHG’s in our outer
atmosphere, the earth’s
temperature has warmed by
0.74 degree Celsius over the last 100 years. This has resulted in a devastating
disruption of the earth’s climatic processes, leading
to floods, famines, droughts and cyclones
among other
natural disasters.

 

The following
figure shows
the major impacts of the Global warming :

 

Climate change Impact on Different Sectors of Pakistan

 

Agriculture Sector

 

 

Agriculture is a crucial
economic sector as it contributes 21% to the gross domectic product (GDP),
employs 45% of the total workforce and contributes about 60% to exports7. The total cropped
area is 23.4 million hectares (Mha), representing 29% of the total reported area8  of
which irrigated areas make
up 18.63 Mha (24% of the
total irrigated area) with the percentage by
province of 77% in Punjab, 14% in Sindh, 5% in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and 4% in Balochistan.9

Currently, 3.8
Mha are under
Sailaba/Rod-Kohi, riverine,
and
Barani farming systems commonly
called the spate irrigation farming
system.10 The
potential area under spate irrigation is estimated
to be around 6.935 Mha, divided as follows: 4.68 Mha in Balochistan, 0.862 Mha in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa, 0.571 Mha in Punjab, and 0.551 Mha in Sindh.11

 

Climate change directly affects food
security elements mainly production
of crop and food accessibility. Thus, it is a main factor determining global, national, and regional food security. According to Daily Times Report,
(April 16 2015), The
Climate Change Federal Minister, Senator, Mushahid
Ullah Khan evoked
and
cautioned that natural calamities would
show increased frequency in the country. The devastating 2010 flooding all alone worn away
6 percent of our GDP. The World Wide Fund for Nature-Pakistan (WWF-Pakistan), in alliance with the London School of
Economics-Political Sciences and Lahore University of Management Sciences presented a report and highlighted the issue of climate change in Pakistan and its impact on agriculture and food security. According to this report, agricultural productivity will be directly affected by climate change.

 

 

7 Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Planning, Development, and Reforms. 2015. Annual Plan 2014–2015. Islamabad.

8 Excluding northern areas, the country’s total geographical area is 79.61 Mha, of which only 72% is reported for

land use and 28% is not surveyed yet for land use classification.

9 Government of Pakistan, Bureau of Statistics. 2011.
Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan. 2010–2011. Islamabad.

10 The spate irrigation farming
system refers to a type of water management unique to semiarid environments.

Flood water from mountain catchments is diverted from river beds and spread
over large areas.

11 S. Ahmad and F. V. Steenberger. 2007. The Potential for the Development of Spate Irrigation System in
Pakistan.

Practical Notes 1. Spate Irrigation Network.

By 2040, 0.5C increase is expected in average temperature
nationwide with 8-10% loss in
terms of all crops corresponding to
Pakistani
Rupees
30,000
per acre.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Graph 4. Percentage of
Agriculture land
out of total land area

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

12

 

 

In the
last 14 years,
percentage of agricultural land
has not increased and remained 45% to 48% of total land area. Major decrease in agricultural land came in 2010 flood. Whereas percentage of agricultural land of South Asia falls in 53% to 54% approx.

 

Graph 5. Percentage of Arable land
out total land area

 

 

 

 

 

 

12 The World Bank Group

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

 

 

In Graph 5, percentage of Arable land out of total land area falls in 38% to 40% in last 14 years.
Whereas
percentage of South
Asia falls in 42% to
43%.

 

Graph 6.  Cereal Yield (KG per hectare)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1

 

4

 

 

 Experts say that low per hectare yield of Cereal crops in Pakistan, is
because of water scarcity, absence of
good quality seeds, and
no progress in research
and
development sector. The

 

 

 

 

 

13 The World Bank Group

14 The World Bank Group

 two successive floods in 2010 and 2011 have also disturbed the agricultural productivity
of the
country.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The German Watch Index 2014, a think-tank on
climate change in Germany, listed Pakistan in the list of top ten most vulnerable countries in the world. The
flood of 2010 worn out 6 percent of
country’s GDP. A study conducted by Global Change Impact
Studies Centre (GCISC) in alliance with Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)
about future scenarios
in climate  change
 of
 Pakistan
 stated
 that
 there  are  significant
 changes
 in
temperature and increasing trend
in both minimum and maximum extremes
over the region.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

Livestock Sector

 

 

In Pakistan, the output of agricultural sector is
backed up by 56.3% of the livestock sector.  The
livestock sector also contributes 11.8%
to the national GDP, and supports
more than 8 million rural families involved directly in raising livestock.16 The emission of this sector makes up a large portion of emission of the agricultural sector. For example, only
enteric fermentation and manure management make up approximately 90% of the GHG emissions of the agricultural

sector, and thereby contribute approximately
40% of Pakistan’s total GHG emissions (footnote 19). Vast rangelands and pastures in the country
support the livestock sector, and it is estimated that 60% of land is
used as a rangeland in northern Pakistan, Baluchistan, and arid and semiarid areas of Sindh and
Punjab.  These  rangelands
 support
 around  93  million  livestock,  and
 in Baluchistan
 alone, approximately 87% of
the
total population
derive their livelihood from
livestock17.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15 The World Bank Group

16 Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Finance. 2015. Economic Survey of Pakistan for 2014–15. Islamabad.

17 Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Finance. 2015. Economic Survey of Pakistan for 2014–15. Islamabad.

Forestry Sector

 

 

Forests are an important natural
resource specifically in the context
of rural livelihood.
It provides timber, fuel-wood, food,
habitat for wildlife, and various important ecosystem services,
such as mitigating carbon dioxide, and controlling or reducing
cyclones and storms in coastal
areas. Forest area in Pakistan is 4.19 Mha, representing
5% of
the total land area. Coastal
mangrove forests extend over 132,000 ha, representing about 3% of the forest area of Pakistan.
The Indus Delta alone supports 97% of the total mangrove forests and is home to over one
million
people, 135,000 of which
depend
on mangroves for
their livelihood.18

 

It is claimed
that most of the expected effects of climate change, such as rise in Sea
level,
temperature change and precipitation, and increase
in occurrence and intensity of extreme
events,
will affect
the
forest severely.
It will also damage the biodiversity status,
and quality of soil.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1

 

9

 

 

Climate Change Impacts on Water Sector
in Pakistan

 

 

The water sector is one of the most delicate sectors to the impacts of climate change. Pakistan

 

has the world’s largest adjoining Indus Basin Irrigation System that is largely dependent on

 

precipitation,
glaciers and snow melt, and ground water abstraction. The primary sources of

 

 

18 WWF Pakistan. Lahore 2005
GIS/Remote Sensing Based Assessment of Mangroves Resources of Selected Project

Sites of Indus Delta and Makran Coast.
http://www.wwf.org.pk/pdf/tp_sp_ectp.pdf

19 The World Bank Group

water are rainfall during the monsoon season (50 million acre feet MAF), and river inflows (142 MAF) in the IRS. Ground water contributes around 48% of surface water accessible at the
canal head of the irrigation system. Water is currently used in agriculture (92%), industries (3%), increase
due to socioeconomic development and the growth in
population.

 

The “Task Force on Climate Change” in 2010 identified some climate change-related threats to water security, as
follows:20

 

Ø  Increased variability of river flows due to an increase in the variability of monsoon
and winter rains,
and loss of natural reservoirs
in the form of glaciers;

Ø  Increased demand of irrigation water because of higher evaporation rates at elevated
temperatures 
in  the wake of reducing per capita availability of water
 resources  and increasing overall water demand;

Ø  Increase in sediment flow due to increased incidences of high intensity rains, resulting in more
rapid loss of reservoir capacity;

Ø  Increased incidences of high altitude snow avalanches and glacial lake outburst floods

 

Ø  (GLOFs) generated
by
surging tributary glaciers
blocking main un-glaciated valleys;

 

Ø  Increased degradation of surface water quality due to rise in extreme climate events
such as floods and droughts; and

Ø  Lack of current knowledge and monitoring effort on climate change impacts in the HKH region, and lack of understanding and modeling
capability about the patterns of glacier
melt and rainfall feeding
the IRS and
their
corresponding impact
on IRS flows.

 

 

 

Climate Change Impacts on Energy Sector

 

 

Climate change has straight consequences on energy with regard to its use and production. The
chief  effects
 of
 changing  climate  are
 an  rise  in  energy
 consumption  in  residential,

commercial, and industry sectors for dissimilar purposes such as for space cooling in response to

 

 

20 Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Planning, Development, and Reforms. 2010. Task Force on Climate Change. Final Report. Islamabad

increase temperature and industrial process cooling
(in thermal power plants and steel mills), refrigeration, pumping water for municipal and agricultural irrigation. Energy delivery and fuel types such as electricity use for air conditioning and use of natural gas for heating are also
affected.

 

During 2008-2009, Pakistan’s net energy consumption was 37.3 million tons
(According to National Economic & Environmental Development Study Report)21. This energy consumption was seen from different sources including gas (43.4%), oil (29%), electricity (15.3%), coal (10.4%), and LPG (1.5%). All of these energy
sources jointly account for 51% of the national greenhouse gas emission. In contrast to last ten years, usage of petroleum has increased by 0.5% per annum, gas by
6.8%, electricity by
5%,
and coal by 12.5% per annum. Whereas, in the last five
years there
has been a rise in gas consumption by 9%, coal consumption by 1.5%,
and a reduction in oil
consumption by 9.5%.