This chapter outlines the procedures that are to be
adopted for conducting this study. It will cover theoretical framework,
research design, study area, sampling techniques and data analysis.

3.1.
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

This study will utilize Amartya Sen’s capability
Approach for analyzing the impact of solar electrification on the livelihood transformation
process (Sen, 1990).

3.1.1.
Capability Approach

Amartya Sen in his Ability approach conceptualized
development as far as individuals’ capacity to go about as they prefer. This
approach was penned down in 1980s. It tested different methods aimed at
measuring development in a nation, for example, gross national product,
individual personal incomes and so forth. Sen took development as a procedure
in which freedom of individuals is increased and individuals are direct
beneficiaries. As the word capability infers an individual’s capacity for
understanding one’s capability to its fullest, so accordingly this approach
development should be directly linked to individuals in term of their capacity
to work easily, enlarging their freedom and giving them adequate opportunities.
Factors, for example, giving individual’s access to important facilities like
health, education and so on enable individuals to understand their potential in
an encouraging environment.

This theoretical approach depends on two claims i.e.
“Freedom” and “Capabilities”. The first claim is understood
as Freedom for accomplishing well-being; while the second claim is taken as
provision of real opportunities to individuals regarding growing individuals’
capacities. Capability approach looks at human life from a set of
“beings” and “doings”. It joins personal satisfaction to
ability of people to work as they would decide to. Capability approach is
dependable on grounds of wealth of life. Success of any project should be
appreciated regarding its impact on lives of individuals in terms of extending
their level of freedom.

Capacity approach assesses the quality of life and
interlinks it with the development. This can set the argument that the
achievement of a project should be viewed in terms of its socio-economic impact
on individuals. As the conception of development require an expansion in the
wellbeing of individuals, so capability approach will help in measuring the
extended scope of people in terms of social and economic performance (Deneulin
and McGregor, 2010). In this approach, wellbeing and development can be
achieved if individuals are being given actual opportunities for doing things
that they appreciate and might want to do. Development should reveal as an
expansion in individuals’ decision made in their lives. Individuals must be
sufficiently capable for settling on their own choices so they could fill in as
operators of their own lives.

As the focus of this study is to make a better
understanding linked with the sustainability of renewable energy as well as
assessing transformation of livelihoods due to solar electrification, thus
capability approach is the related approach for this study. This approach will
help in evaluating the effect on the inhabitants of specified village because
of the solar electrification regarding life style as they desire to live in
less polluted air, to have a improve access to information through radio,
internet, and television and to have a improve education    through increasing night work hours; and
regarding increasing their freedom to do as they like because of easy
accessibility and availability of solar energy.

3.1.2.
Theory of Reasoned Action

As stated by Brown, Massey and
Burkman,(2002) states the theory that both state of mind and subjective norm
are significant determinants of people groups plan to install and utilize sun
based innovation in enterprises. And also the intention to adopt and to further
more future planning for solar technology will be effected by individuals’
state of mind. This theory states that people behaviour is impacted by their
behaviour’s planning which is affected by their state of mind towards behaviour
for subjective norm. (Venkalesh & Davis, 2000).

Behavioural intention channels a
one’s relative strength of plan to act upon behaviour. Attitude contains values
about the consequences of acting the behaviour multiplied by their assessment
of these consequences (Fishbein & Ajzen, 1975). Subjective norm is viewed
as a mixture of perceived expectations from applicable persons or groups along
with planning. Thus, individual’s attitude, combined with subjective norms,
makes his behavioural intention.

 

3.1.3. Innovative
Diffusion Theory (IDT)

Rogers in 1995 explain the theory
of diffusion of innovation gives perceptions that people might have from
claiming adopting a technology for example, such that solar technology. The
theory explains, predicts, and accounts for the factors which impact selection
of a technology. This is in line for those studied variables. As stated by
Rogers (2003) people solar technology behavior is determined by their recognitions
perceptions in regards to relative advantage, compatibility, Unpredictability
and also observability from claiming a innovation. These constructs have
correlated with the studied variables. This identifies with attitude towards
utilization of sun oriented technology.

3.1.4.
Theory of change

The theory of change framework will
provide a more detailed analysis of the impacts of solar energy access in this
study area.

The 
“Theory  of  change” 
is  a  theoretical 
frame  work/tool  often 
used  to  analyse 
and evaluate activities, policies, initiatives, or interventions. A
theory of change (TOC) is an instrument for making solutions to difficult
social troubles. A central TOC defines how a collection of untimely and
intermediate actions sets the phase for generating long-term goal. (Anderson,
2005) 

In 
order  to  achieve 
the  desired  long-term 
outcome  under  the 
theory  of  change framework, certain assumptions need to
be made. The assumptions made in this study include;

a)  Increased modern energy access

According to theory of change
households will continuously use the solar home systems, new households adopt
the technology , the  Solar  Home 
Systems  remain  active 
over  the  long 
term, serious maintenance  issues,
households are able to pay for the systems and services.

b)  Improved household income

Solar access will lead to better
performance of existing enterprises and will increase income of some household,
new enterprises will be established with the availability of this technology,
and savings are increase from less use of kerosene.

 

c)  Improvement in education

Children will study hours will
increase with the usage of solar electrification specially at night time and
good  grades  as 
a  result  of 
studying  longer  motivates 
the  children  to  enrol  for further education.

d)  Improved social welfare

A sense of joy and prestige is
derived from the ownership of a solar home system, Users of SHSs are able to
establish income-generating enterprises to supplement family income such as
bazaar/neighbourhoods shops, Improved information access via radio and
television, Women are empowered (economic, social and political)

e)  Improvement in health and safety at home

Solar energy access will reduced
indoor air pollution, access to health related information via radio or TV such
as family planning, sanitation, disease control and availability of income from
savings that is now used for health care services. In addition households have
at least one external security light

Thus, The Theory of Change
Framework has been explained and how it will be used to analyze the social,
economic and community benefits of the solar electrification.

3.2. DEFINITION OF
CENTRAL TERMS

Price:

This refers to price of solar panels, batteries, price of different solar electronic devices
like bulbs, fans, irons and mobile chargers used to make possible the
solar energy for domestic use by
households.

Availability of Alterative
sources:

This term is defined as
the accessibility of other sources of energy utilized by households for example
electricity, biogas, bio fuel, kerosene, gas and many more.

Level of knowledge and
awareness:

This term is defined as
the number of solar adoption viewed in the region, number of formal and no. of
informal trainers in the area.

Income Level:

This term is defined as
the regular income earned by the household and also refers to that household
income range.

Solar Technology:

This refers to source
of energy from the sun that is converted for lighting, heating water, pump
water and run other household appliances.

Load
shedding:

This term refers to the
shutdown of electric power i.e., numbers of hours of lad shedding faced by
households in the regions.

Sustainability:

This term defined as the economic
sustainability which is refers to the affordability of solar technology
including installation cost and maintenance cost faced by households and
environmental sustainability refers to the pollution caused by solar system
faced by household. And this term also defined as it fulfilled the needs of
households.

Durability:

This term refers to the lifetime of
solar system i.e., how many years this solar system works and also defines the
life span of batteries.

Weather:

This term refers to Is the area
suitable for solar system and also defines numbers of hours of sunlight in a
day time faced by the households.

Adoption
of solar system:

This term defines how many households
are using the solar system in this area.

3.3. SELECTION OF THE
RESEARCH METHOD

This study focused on
exploring the factors affecting the adoption of solar electrification and
analyzing sustainability of solar technology in rural areas of District
Peshawar. The purpose is to determine the effects of such technology
subjectively. This primary research will help in reflecting people’s
experiences of PV solar technology and their perceptions regarding its
sustainability. And also this primary research will help in collecting
information from the households which can help in developing a better
understanding regarding the factors affecting the adoption and sustainability
of this technology.

 

 

3.3.1. Study Area

For this study, six muhallas
from village Regi of District Peshawar have been selected namely Aftazei, Yousfzei, kandery, Rokizei, Mullazei and Umanzei. Many residents of these muhallas are relying on solar
energy for meeting their energy needs and thus can provide the required information
for which this research is designed.

3.4.
SAMPLING METHOD AND SAMPLE SIZE

The
data is collected through cluster random sampling procedure. In the first stage
of sampling, the area is divided into different clusters. For this purpose,
here consider muhallasas clusters. Then 6 clusters is selected randomly from
all 10 clusters. In the second stage, around 50 subjects (households) is
selected from each cluster (sample size 300). For the collection of data,
initially, a questionnaire is developed. Then, the data is collected through
this the questionnaire by surveying these six muhallas. The
purpose of this sampling method is to investigate views and experience of
people regarding the solar electrification and to gauge the
factors affecting adoption and sustainability of solar electrification.

3.5.
DATA COLLECTION AND DATA ANALYSIS

As objective of this
study is to analyze the factors affecting the adoption and sustainability of
solar electrification, questionnaire was
designed in a way that meaningful information could be gathered from the user.
For data processing and analysis, descriptive statistical analysis method has
been applied. Descriptive 
statistical  analysis  is 
the  method which includes  different analysis  of statistical  data 
and its graph presentation to understand it easily. Primary data have been collected through a general household survey
method using structured questionnaire based on selected dependent variable and
independent variables. The
independent variables are  price,
sustainability, load shedding, level of knowledge and awareness, level of
Household income, pollution, No. of substitutes available, weather and
durability of solar system. While dependent variable is adoption and sustainability
of solar energy is chosen for the aim of the study.

After
data collection, the questionnaires were systematically coded and data was
entered in SPSS for statistical analysis and binary logistic regression
statistical technique has been use by the help STATA. After detailed
description of data, conclusions were drawn. Descriptive statistics has been
used to show the results.

For modelling, logistic regression is used in its place of ordinary
least-square regression model. This is for the reason that that one of the
important limitations of ordinary least-square regression is that it cannot
deal with dichotomous and discrete (categorical) variables. Logistic regression
is a particular case of generalized linear model which is used when the outcome
variable is dichotomous or categorical and the independent variables are of any
types (discrete, categorical, continuous or a mix of all).The generalized
linear model (GLM) is an extension of the classical linear model. Generalized
linear models provide a unified technique to perform regression analysis of
continuous, count or dichotomous data set.

 

3.5.1.
STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY

Different approaches
are available for statistical modelling. Since the response variable in our
study is binary in nature i.e. the presence and absence of solar system,
therefore, we pick the binary logistic regression.

The probability
distribution function of the dependent variable y is given by

 

 

                                               

 

The logistic regression
model is given as

 

 

A logit link
transformation is used to transform equations which equate the linear
combination of the covariates to logit link function. The link function is also
called the logit, which is simply the log of odds. The logit is given in
equation

 

3.5.2. EMPIRICAL MODEL

Here adoption
of solar energy is denoted by ASE and sustainability by S price of solar energy by P, Level of Household
income by HY, load shedding by LS, level
of knowledge and awareness by KA, pollution
by Pol, Weather by W,
and No. of substitutes available by NSA and durability of solar technology by
D. While ?0, ?1, ?2,
?3, ?4 and ?5 are parameters and µ
is residual term.

3.6. IMPACT ASSESSMENT

In
this study, factors affecting the adoption and sustainability of solar
electrification would be assessed. The following are the independent variable,
dependent variables and their indicators:

Variable-
Independent

Indicator

Price of solar technology

·        
Initial  installment cost
·        
Price of batteries
·        
Maintenance cost
·        
Monthly cost of solar
and WAPDA electricity

Level of Knowledge and
Awareness of solar technology
 

·        
Access to
Information on existence of solar devices
·        
Informal
and formal training on solar technology.                                                        

Level of Income

·        
Regular
level of income

Availability of alternative
source
 
 

·        
Proximity
Grid electricity
·        
Proximity
to Firewood/ kerosene / Gas/generator

Sustainability

·        
Economic sustainability
Initial Installation cost
Maintenance cost
·        
Environmental sustainability
Reduced air pollution
·        
It fulfills the needs of
households

Weather

·        
Sunny hours

Load shedding

·        
Hours of load shedding of electricity

Dependent
variable : Adoption of Solar

·        
Households
using solar energy.
 

 

3.7. POLICY RELEVANCE

This study will attempt to find
out if the PV Solar technology is sustainable and can it be substituted with
energy provided through conventional sources. The energy policy of Pakistan has
clearly stated the aspirations of policy makers for extending the renewable
infrastructure in the country. The findings of this study will help in
enlightening policymakers for extending off grid solar power to other regions.